Riot Watch 2025: 3 Hotspots Unfolding You Can't Ignore

Introduction: A World on Edge

As we navigate 2025, the global landscape is marked by a complex web of interconnected challenges. From economic headwinds and supply chain disruptions to the accelerating impacts of climate change, the foundations of stability in many regions are showing signs of strain. This environment is ripe for social unrest, political upheaval, and unforeseen conflicts. For global businesses, investors, and informed citizens, understanding where these pressures are most acute is not about fear-mongering; it's about strategic foresight.

This report, Riot Watch 2025, moves beyond the headlines to analyze three specific regions where a confluence of factors is creating a high potential for significant instability. These aren't just far-off conflicts; their ripple effects on energy prices, supply chains, and international relations could be felt worldwide. Let's delve into the hotspots you can't afford to ignore.

Hotspot 1: The Sahel's Perfect Storm of Instability

Stretching across Africa just south of the Sahara Desert, the Sahel region—particularly Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger—has become a textbook case of cascading crises. Once a focus of international counter-terrorism efforts, the region is now a vortex of military coups, rampant insurgency, and profound humanitarian need.

Drivers: Coups, Climate, and Competition

The primary drivers of instability in the Sahel are deeply intertwined:

• Governance Collapse: A series of military coups since 2020 has dismantled democratic institutions and severed ties with Western partners like France and the United States. New military juntas are struggling to assert control beyond capital cities, creating vast ungoverned spaces.
• Jihadist Insurgency: Affiliates of ISIS and al-Qaeda have exploited this power vacuum, expanding their operations, controlling territory, and imposing their will on local populations. Their violence displaces millions and cripples local economies.
• Geopolitical Realignment: The withdrawal of French and other Western forces has been swiftly followed by the arrival of Russian influence, primarily through the Africa Corps (formerly Wagner Group). This introduces a new layer of geopolitical competition, with Russia offering security assistance in exchange for strategic influence and access to resources.
• Climate Catastrophe: The Sahel is on the front lines of climate change. Severe drought and desertification are destroying agricultural livelihoods, fueling resource conflicts between farmers and herders, and pushing desperate youth toward extremist groups that offer income and a sense of purpose.

2025 Outlook

In 2025, expect the humanitarian crisis to deepen. Food insecurity will likely worsen, potentially triggering large-scale protests in urban centers that have so far been insulated from the worst of the violence. Clashes between state forces (backed by Russian mercenaries) and jihadist groups will intensify, with civilians caught in the middle. The risk of regional spillover into coastal West African states like Ghana and Ivory Coast remains critically high.

The Balkan Powder Keg Reignited

The Western Balkans have long been a region of fragile peace, but recent years have seen a dangerous resurgence of the nationalist rhetoric and ethnic tensions that defined the 1990s. The flashpoint remains the relationship between Serbia and Kosovo, a complex dispute with deep historical roots.

Drivers: Historic Grievances and Modern Geopolitics

• Unresolved Status of Kosovo: Serbia does not recognize the independence of its former province, Kosovo. This fundamental disagreement poisons any attempt at normalization. Tensions in northern Kosovo, home to a significant Serb minority, frequently flare up over issues like license plates, local governance, and law enforcement.
• Nationalist Politics: Political leaders on all sides often weaponize nationalist sentiment for domestic political gain, scapegoating other ethnic groups and obstructing progress. This rhetoric keeps historical wounds fresh and society polarized.
• External Influence: The region is a key arena for geopolitical competition. While the EU and US push for integration and dialogue, Russia actively plays a spoiler role, leveraging its historic ties with Serbia to undermine Western influence. China, meanwhile, expands its economic footprint through infrastructure projects, creating debt dependency.

2025 Outlook

The risk in 2025 is not necessarily a full-scale war, but a series of escalating, low-level clashes that could spiral out of control. A violent incident involving police and local Serb communities in northern Kosovo, or a provocative political move by either Belgrade or Pristina, could trigger a crisis. Disinformation campaigns, fueled by external actors, will likely intensify around any such event, making de-escalation difficult. The potential for localized riots and border skirmishes is a serious concern, threatening the stability of southeastern Europe.

South America's Lithium Triangle Heats Up

The global green energy transition is creating new geopolitical battlegrounds. One of the most critical is the “Lithium Triangle,” an arid region spanning parts of Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile that holds over half of the world's known lithium reserves—a vital component for electric vehicle batteries.

Drivers: Resource Rush Meets Environmental Resistance

• Intense Water Usage: Lithium extraction in this region is incredibly water-intensive, requiring vast amounts of brine to be pumped from underground and evaporated. This is happening in one of the driest places on Earth, putting immense strain on a resource vital for local and indigenous communities and their agricultural practices.
• Indigenous Rights and Land Disputes: Many of the richest lithium deposits lie on or near ancestral indigenous lands. Communities are increasingly organizing to protest the lack of consultation, the environmental degradation of their homelands, and the fact that they see little economic benefit from the resource boom.
• Weak Governance and Regulation: In the rush to attract foreign investment, national and regional governments have often been criticized for lax environmental oversight and for failing to enforce protections for local communities. This creates a perception of injustice that fuels social movements.

2025 Outlook

As dozens of new lithium projects are slated to come online, 2025 is shaping up to be a year of confrontation. Expect a surge in organized protests, including road blockades targeting mining operations and transport routes. These actions could disrupt the global lithium supply chain. The potential for violent clashes between protestors, private security, and state police is high. This isn't just an environmental issue; it's a conflict over resources, rights, and the future of the green economy, with the potential to create significant political instability and investment risk.

Navigating a Volatile 2025

The three hotspots identified—the Sahel, the Balkans, and South America's Lithium Triangle—illustrate the diverse and interconnected nature of global risk in 2025. They show that instability is no longer driven by single causes but by a dangerous fusion of political failure, economic desperation, geopolitical competition, and environmental stress.

Watching these unfolding situations is not about predicting doomsday; it is about recognizing the complexity of our world. For policymakers, it’s a call for more nuanced diplomacy. For businesses, it’s a mandate to build more resilient and ethical supply chains. And for all of us, it’s a reminder that events in one corner of the globe can have far-reaching consequences for us all.